The IMF and the OECD outline a year of moderate growth and more expensive financing
The global economy will continue growing in 2027, but in a more demanding environment for businesses, marked by more expensive financing, moderating consumption and persistent inflation.
This is indicated by the latest forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the OECD and the Bank of Spain, which Pimec has analysed in a preview of its economic outlook report for 2027.
The forecasts point to positive growth, but with less capacity to absorb new increases in energy, financial or production costs. For SMEs, this means paying special attention to cash flow, financing, sales trends and business margins.
What are the main forecasts?
Europe will grow less
The IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.4% in 2027, while the OECD puts this forecast at 3.0%. Despite having weathered the consequences of the war in the Middle East better than expected, growth will be uneven.
The eurozone will be one of the least dynamic regions, with forecasts of between 1.0% and 1.2%. France, the main market for Catalan goods exports, would grow by only 0.7%, which could limit opportunities for exporting companies.
Spain will slow down and consumption will lose momentum
The IMF and the OECD expect the Spanish economy to grow by 1.8% in 2027, while the Bank of Spain puts the forecast at 2.2%.
This moderation is mainly explained by the loss of momentum in domestic demand. According to the Bank of Spain, private consumption would go from growing 3.0% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, while investment would moderate from 4.1% to 2.8%. This could translate into slower sales growth, especially for companies that depend on the domestic market.
As for inflation, forecasts for Spain stand between 2.7% and 3.7%. Although moderation is expected, prices will continue to rise and put pressure on business costs.
Financing will be more expensive
The twelve-month Euribor has risen from 2.17% in September 2025 to 3.25% in September 2026, which makes credit indexed to this benchmark more expensive and contributes to more demanding financing conditions.
This scenario particularly affects companies that need to renew credit facilities or finance investments. For this reason, it will be important to anticipate cash flow needs, review loan terms and consider alternative financing options to protect business margins.
More pressure on energy costs
Although international organisations expect a gradual reduction in oil and gas prices during 2027, energy costs would remain above pre-war levels in the Middle East.
This situation, combined with inflation and more expensive financing, could increase pressure on business margins. For this reason, it will be important to review supply contracts, monitor costs and assess their impact on sales prices and business profitability.
What should businesses bear in mind for 2027?
Pimec's analysis identifies five areas to which companies should pay special attention:
Financing: anticipate the renewal of loans and credit facilities, review interest rates and plan cash flow.
Costs and energy: monitor trends in energy, labour and supplier prices to protect margins.
Sales and markets: adapt commercial forecasts to more moderate consumption and consider market diversification.
Taxation and grants: follow the evolution of tax policies and public support programmes, which could shift towards more selective measures.
Investments: plan new projects taking into account the cost of financing and demand prospects.
In short, 2027 does not present itself as a year of economic crisis, but rather one of more moderate growth and a more demanding environment for business management. Anticipating risks, controlling costs and planning financial decisions will be key to maintaining SME competitiveness.
This analysis is a preview of the economic outlook report that Pimec will publish at the end of the year, in which it will delve into the specific implications for the Catalan economy.